Ramping up production in South Africa’s coal mining industry could spell disaster for the longest load-shedding break South Africa has experienced since 2021.

This is according to former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo, who told delegates at the Operation Vulindlela conference that the mining sector has been under significant strain in recent months.

Lower demand for commodities and increased input costs have hampered the South African mining sector’s productivity, resulting in lower production and, as a result, reduced energy consumption in South Africa’s mining industry.

“My personal view is that half of the reason we don’t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” EWN quoted Naidoo as saying.

Naidoo said he believes load-shedding will return if South Africa “switches on” the mining sector.

Load-shedding has been suspended in South Africa for 92 days and counting.

This positive development surprised many experts who believed that Eskom’s coal-fired fleet was doomed following the country’s worst year of load-shedding in history in 2023.

EE Business Intelligence managing director and energy analyst Chris Yelland said in January that he expected only slight improvements in Eskom’s performance in 2024.

Yelland said he expected the return to service of three units at Kusile Power Station to add significant capacity to the grid.

However, he said Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) was a concern.

Forest Energy Solutions energy expert Matthew Cruise said he expected load-shedding to be implemented at a similar level to 2023.

Cruise only expected South Africa to have between 20 and 50 load-shedding-free days in 2024, assuming EAF remained below 60%.

He also believed there was a strong chance of load-shedding returning this winter, indicating that short-term solutions were implemented to improve South Africa’s energy situation before the elections in May 2024.

“At the start of May, it was at 58%, and then it increased all the way up to 70% just briefly. Then, it was sitting at an average of 65% week-on-week,” he said.

“All of a sudden, just before the end of May, we had an increase of 11% EAF. There does seem to be a coordination of units coming back online very quickly before the end of May.”